" The more things change, the more they stay the same, would be an apt description of financial markets in H2 2013. Nonetheless, a recent rise in interest rates could be a game changer for the second half of the year. "
Pascal Blanqué, CIO Amundi Group
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - Weekly - 22 May 2015 pdf I 306.58 ko
After the “great recession” and deflation, is the “great stagnation” now the main challenge?The financial crisis triggered a “great recession” in developed economies, and the fight has been on everywhere against the risks of deflation. By reacting aggressively, the United States has returned to the path of growth. Things have been made more difficult in the euro zone by a second crisis – the debt crisis. Economic policies delayed the recovery but the recovery did come in 2013. The ECB is keeping close watch on this trend, as seen in its 5 June decisions. However, the recovery has been disappointing everywhere, and that has given new impetus to fears of a “great stagnation”.
Buy the rumour, hold the newsRumours of QE by the ECB have been a game changer for equity markets as central banks have proved to be key in market behavior. High confidence in central banks has maintained low levels of volatility across asset classes in the face of a sluggish, but nonetheless, real recovery in Europe and Japan.